Watches as an Investment: Not Dead, Just Sleeping
The idea of buying watches as an investment is not dead. But the easy version of it probably is.
During the extraordinary market of 2020–2022, the story became dangerously simple: buy a desirable Rolex, Audemars Piguet or Patek Philippe at retail and the secondary market would do the rest. Waiting lists lengthened, premiums expanded and watches that had historically been bought primarily for enjoyment began to be discussed like liquid financial assets.
The broad market has cooled
That era corrected sharply. Many mainstream references that once traded well above retail fell back, and buyers who entered at peak prices discovered the obvious truth: watches are physical luxury goods with spreads, condition risk, servicing costs and changing tastes.
Yet it would be equally simplistic to conclude that collectible watches can no longer preserve or grow value.
The market has become more selective
What appears to have changed is the number of watches that genuinely qualify for investment-style thinking. The market is rewarding scarcity, historical significance, exceptional condition and genuine collector demand more than generic brand recognition.
Some Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet references remain extremely strong, but the assumption that almost any steel sports model will automatically rise is much harder to defend than it was during the boom.
At the very top, strength remains
Ultra-high-end vintage and rare modern watches continue to attract serious money. Exceptional Patek Philippe, rare Rolex, historically important complications and genuinely scarce pieces have audiences that extend well beyond casual buyers.
Independent watchmaking has also become increasingly important. The best work from makers whose annual production may be measured in dozens or hundreds rather than tens of thousands has a natural scarcity that large industrial brands cannot easily reproduce. Collectors are increasingly willing to pay for authorship, craft and low production rather than simply the most recognisable logo.
That does not make every independent an investment
Scarcity alone is not enough. A watch can be rare because nobody wanted it. The strongest pieces usually combine rarity with design significance, technical distinction, maker reputation and a deepening collector base.
Our rule: the watch has to work without the investment story
Anyone buying primarily for return should remember that watches are not regulated investment products and future prices cannot be guaranteed. Transaction costs are significant and liquidity can disappear quickly when sentiment changes.
The sensible collector’s approach is still to buy a watch you would be happy owning even if its price stayed flat for ten years.
Investment potential has not vanished. It is simply sleeping in fewer places, and the market is now forcing buyers to distinguish real collectability from temporary heat.